Risk analysis plan -- 3

Four analysts cover the stock of Fluorine Chemical. One forecasts a 5% return for the coming year. A second expects the return to be negative 5%. A third predicts a 10% return. A fourth expects a 3% return in the coming year. You are relatively confident that the return will be positive but not large, so you arbitrarily assign probabilities of being correct of 35%, 5%, 20%, and 40%, respectively, to the analysts’ forecasts. Given these probabilities, what is Fluorine Chemical’s expected return for the coming year?

Skills: Accounting, Business Plans, Finance, Business Analysis, Financial Analysis

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